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周小川罕见评中美贸易:对GDP影响不大 但会削弱对股市信心

2018-09-15 11:34         [网贷东方]:www.wangdaidongfang.com

   前中國人民銀行(中國央行)行長周小川近日接受美國CNBC新聞頻道訪問時宣稱,美中貿易戰對中國經濟的影響「不到半個百分點」。

  香港明報報導,現任博鰲亞洲論壇秘書長周小川出席在義大利舉辦的安博思論壇(Ambrosetti Forum)時,接受CNBC訪問表示,「我們使用數學模型來計算貿易戰的負面影響。它不是很大,並不重要,對中國經濟(指國內生產毛額GDP)的影響不到半個百分點。」

  周小川對CNBC說:「最糟糕的情況是,中國不再向美國出口5000億美元的商品。這就要看中國能有多快將貨物轉到其他國家。實際上我認為中國可以迅速採取行動。」

  不過,他說,2008年雷曼兄弟事件發生時,市場突然出現恐慌,經濟模型很難分析到市場情緒。

  他表示,中國經濟成長超過6%,有足夠外匯存底和流動性,有能力抵禦外部衝擊。

  另据财新报道,在肯定美国对华关税不会严重打乱中国经济增长步伐的同时,周小川观察到,贸易战阴云一定程度上打击了中国投资者的情绪。“他们对风险和不确定性非常反感,不知如何把握中国市场的下一步走向。因此,贸易战可能会削弱投资者对中国企业和股市的信心。”

  此外,新兴市场危机也加剧了对中国市场的担忧。“阿根廷、土耳其、俄罗斯等国正在经历的市场动荡也使人们感到了些许紧张,当下正蔓延着一种不太稳定的市场情绪。”

  除了贸易战这一主要诱因,周小川补充,中国股市近期走低的背后还有其他国内因素。”中国正在转变其经济发展战略,从高速城市化过渡到新的发展模式,从依赖房地产市场转变为多元化发展路线。在此之上,中国也越来越强调环境友好型发展,但很多上市公司都加剧了环境污染,投资者现在不太看好这类企业的股票。”

  周小川表示,“中国不赞同美国财政部评价他国外汇体系的做法,单边的宣布并不具权威性,应在多方讨论之后再得出结论。中国正进行多重汇率机制改革,收回了对汇率的一些干预,市场也认为,这些新的机制是决定人民币汇率的主要因素。因此我认为,现在并不是美国判定中国是否操纵汇率的好时机。我相信,美国财政部对中国汇率变动的观察应该是十分到位的,他们应该能看到,中国现在没有进行汇率操纵。”

  附录英文报道:

  The trade war between Washington and Beijing won't have a huge effect on the Chinese economy, the formerPeople's Bank of China (PBOC) governor Zhou Xiaochuan told CNBC Friday.

  "We used a mathematical model to calculate the negative impact of the trade war. It is not very large, it is not significant. It is less than half a percent (of an) impact to the Chinese economy," Zhou told CNBC's Steve Sedgwick at the Ambrosetti Forum on the shores of Lake Como in Italy.

  ……

  Zhou said China's response would be to quickly re-route goods to other countries and this is what the PBOC has also advised …….

  "The worst case scenario is that China is no longer going to export $500 billion of goods to the U.S. market and then its dependent how quickly you can diversify those export goods to the other countries. Actually I think China could act quickly," Zhou added.

  The former PBOC governor warned however that economic modelling could not factor in a quick shift in the mood within China.

  "We saw when the Lehman Brothers event happened. There was sudden panic and contagion so this kind of thing is not very easy to analyze," he said, before adding that with economic growth of 6 percent a year and a floating exchange rate, the Chinese economy was well placed to withstand external shocks.

  Chinese stocks on the country's CSI 300 index have fallen 13 percent since the United States unveiled its tariff targets in mid-June. In contrast, the U.S. S&P 500 index has risen 4 percent.

  Zhou said that while the trade war was a "major reason" for the stock slump, there was also some domestic reasons at play.

  "The Chinese economy is facing a change of strategy from a fast urbanization process to a new form that needs to diversify from various state sectors," Zhou said. "Also there is a lot of listed companies, that created pollution and investors are (now) not so friendly to these stocks."

  来源:华尔街见闻


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